Fooled by Randomness

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

• 12 maart 2004
• 9781587991844

Samenvatting:

This revised paperback edition of Fooled by Randomness includes a new introduction, the expansion of some of the author's key concepts and an extensive bibliography pointing the reader towards further reading. Taleb takes the reader on a fascinating journey through our perceptions of success, failure and luck; bridging the gap between mathematics, philosophy, the financial markets and life in general. Concepts such as survivorship bias, induction and our genetic lack of fitness for the modern world are laid before the reader in an accessible narrative that sweeps across the trading rooms of New York and Chicago, passing along the way Solon (the Ancient World's wisest man), the philosophy of Karl Popper and the pronouncements of Yogi Berra ( it ain't over 'till the fat lady sings ) amongst others. At the end of the journey, the reader is left with a deep understanding of the role randomness plays in all our lives. Taleb delves into the reality of the lucky fool being in the right place at the right time who claims some brilliantly conceived plan was behind the success. He explains his ideas against a backdrop of the greatest and most visible forum possible for investigating these misconceptions - the world of trading and derivatives in which Taleb is regarded as a leading international figure. How often has the brilliant trader, who seems to the outside world to have been granted the gift of second-sight, been suddenly wiped out by a supposedly rare - or random - event? And we can all recognize the business leader or politician who claims a remarkable upturn in results is solely down to the cleverly thought-out strategies - when the reality is a series of independent factors coming together by chance to produce the success. Are we capable of recognizing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary?